It's more a scaremongering act than a poor job of forecasting

In the previous financial year, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah forecast a budget surplus of HK$3.5 billion and we ended up with a surplus of HK$65 billion. The forecast 2012 budget surplus of HK$8.5 billion turned into a surplus of HK$66.7 billion, and in the year before, a forecast deficit of HK$40 billion turned into a surplus of HK$26 billion. The government's efforts at medium-term forecasting are no better. The forecast in 2009 spoke of fiscal reserves in 2012-13 of HK$401.2 billion, but three years later the reality was a surplus of HK$734 billion.

via Business feed http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1402698/its-more-scaremongering-act-poor-job-forecasting